By HRCNN Hampton Road Construction News Network Staff Writer
Across Virginia and much of the country, “affordable housing” is most often defined by its relationship to a region’s Area Median Income (AMI)—a figure calculated annually by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to represent the midpoint of income distribution within a given region. Multifamily developments that receive public incentives or comply with local inclusionary zoning ordinances often reserve a certain percentage of units for households earning 30%, 50%, 60%, or 80% of the AMI. In theory, this system ensures that low- and moderate-income families have access to safe, decent housing. But in practice, AMI-based affordability has a time limit—and many renters are discovering just how short that window can be.
Rent levels in these units are typically pegged to HUD’s annual income limits, which are adjusted every year based on inflation, regional wage shifts, and other economic indicators. However, while initial lease-up rents may be within reach for families earning at or below the targeted AMI bracket, the allowable annual rent increases—often tied to fixed percentages or indexed escalators—can outpace actual income growth for tenants. Over time, the same unit that once qualified as “affordable” under the program’s metrics may become a financial strain, especially for tenants whose wages have stagnated or who have experienced job or family disruptions.
This is particularly problematic in high-demand housing markets like Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and the Richmond metropolitan area, where base AMI levels have been climbing steadily year over year. As AMIs rise, so too do the rent ceilings for so-called affordable units. Yet, not all households see a corresponding increase in earnings. Many renters—especially seniors, single parents, or essential workers—find themselves priced out of the very units that were designed to serve them. This leads to a painful irony: a unit remains technically “affordable” on paper, even as the tenant can no longer afford to stay.
This cycle—entering an affordable unit only to be forced out a few years later—creates what housing advocates call “renter instability.” Families must uproot children from schools, face transportation disruptions, and re-enter increasingly competitive rental markets with fewer viable options. The emotional and financial toll is considerable, particularly for households who moved into these units expecting long-term stability and relief from volatile market-rate housing costs. Instead, they are thrust back into the uncertainty that affordable housing policy was designed to mitigate.
One structural contributor to this problem is the lack of long-term rent stabilization or income recertification requirements in many inclusionary housing agreements. While some localities and Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) projects do require periodic income recertification to ensure tenants still qualify, others do not—allowing landlords to gradually escalate rents while existing tenants bear the burden. This is compounded in jurisdictions where inclusionary zoning is voluntary or poorly enforced, leading to inconsistent outcomes across neighborhoods.
To address this issue, several housing experts and municipal planners are advocating for stronger affordability protections: longer affordability periods (30–50 years), graduated rent caps, and enhanced tenant protections against excessive rent escalations. Others are exploring policy mechanisms such as “rent-to-income” lock-ins, which ensure rent increases remain in sync with a household’s actual earnings rather than the broader AMI curve. These reforms could help preserve the intent of affordable housing programs and promote real housing security for tenants over time.
As Virginia continues to explore inclusionary zoning strategies and expand its multifamily housing stock, it is imperative to recognize that affordability is not static. What a family can afford today may not hold true in five years, especially without policy safeguards in place. To truly serve low- and moderate-income residents, our housing policies must evolve from simply providing affordable units to preserving affordability for the people who need it most—over time, not just at the lease signing.
About HRCNN
The Hampton Roads Construction News Network (HRCNN) is an independent media initiative powered by Earthly Infrastructure®, dedicated to covering the intersections of construction, zoning, housing policy, and infrastructure across Virginia. We aim to elevate important conversations shaping our built environment through thoughtful reporting and community-driven insight. If you have a story idea, policy perspective, or article you’d like to contribute, we welcome submissions at https://earthlyinfrastructure.com/hrcnn-submit-article. Thank you for your continued interest and support as we work to inform, engage, and advocate for a stronger, more equitable future in Virginia’s communities.